The U.S. PV market is entering uncertain territory in 2024 with Southeast Asian tariff exemptions expiring in June 2024 and the timing of the commissioning of new U.S. PV manufacturing capacity. The ASAP 2024 forecast for U.S. PV capacity additions is 29 gigawatts (GW). The 2024 forecast for utility PV installations is 19 GW and for small PV (rooftop) installations the forecast is 10 GW. PV cumulative installed capacity will likely surpass wind cumulative installed capacity in 2024.

2023 was a record setting year for U.S. PV with 27 GW of capacity additions. Favorable tariffs for PV manufactured in Southeast Asian countries supported the robust 52% growth in annual U.S. PV capacity additions. At the end of 2023, U.S. cumulative installed PV capacity stands at 138 GW. Utility scale PV dominates the U.S. PV market with 90 GW of cumulative installed capacity (65% share) and is followed by 48 GW of cumulative small PV capacity (35% share).

U.S. wind capacity additions were a disappointing 8 GW in 2023. The sharp decline in wind installations is due to transmission and permitting headwinds, as well as manufacturing issues. Cumulative installed wind capacity increased to 148 GW. The prospects for wind growth in 2024 remain bleak with a 10 GW forecast.

Combined PV and wind electricity generation contributed 16.0% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2023. PV electricity generation was 5.6% of total U.S. electricity generation, and wind was 10.4% of total U.S. electricity generation. In 2023 PV electricity generation topped 5.0% of total U.S. electricity generation for the first time.

Storage of intermittent PV and wind electricity generation is essential to reduce fossil fuel electricity generation. U.S. battery storage capacity additions in 2023 was 5 GW, which brings cumulative battery storage capacity to 14 GW. While battery storage developers state a four-hour storage capacity, average battery capacity utilization in 2023 was only 1.3 hours per day. In essence, battery storage is being applied for modest peak demand shaving. ASAP's battery capacity additions forecast for 2024 is 8 GW with a 1.5 hour per day storage capacity utilization factor.

The U.S. is lagging in domestic PV manufacturing and relies heavily on imported PV modules and cells. In response to concerns about the dominance of the Chinese PV manufacturing market and the reliance on Chinese PV components for growth in U.S. PV, the U.S. Congress included solar manufacturing incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). A Department of Energy study states that the IRA incentives will enable the U.S. to increase U.S. PV manufacturing to 10 GW by 2025, 15 GW by 2026, and 25 GW by 2028.

While the PV manufacturing goals are modest in comparison to China, they are an encouraging start as envisioned in ASAP's “Grand Plan for Solar Energy” Scientific American article. Numerous firms manufacturing PV components have stated that they will build manufacturing facilities in the U.S. Importantly, the U.S. is developing a supply chain for the manufacture of monocrystalline-silicon (c-SI) PV modules, which is the leading PV technology that is currently dominated by Chinese manufacturers.

ASAP projects strong growth in annual PV and wind capacity additions going forward. Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) extends the solar investment tax credit, which provides a tailwind for PV growth. In addition, the IRA provides incentives for electricity transmission line infrastructure, which is critical for rapid growth in PV and wind electricity generation. Several high voltage dc (HVDC) power line projects are in the land acquisition stage of development.

With the knowledge and experience gained, the U.S. is poised for the Terawatt Challenge, 2021-2050.

Commentary:
The societal costs of climate change scenarios, from best to worst over the period 2020-2100, are very sobering. And when the climate change outlook is extended to the period 2100-2200, the societal costs of climate change become staggering. Climate change scientists are unified in their concern that climate change outlooks are increasingly disturbing. The longer we delay in making a total commitment to a solar and wind energy system and steep carbon dioxide reduction, the greater the costs we transfer to our children and grandchildren. The goal is achievable, but only if there is unified government, business and public support.

Summary (see the details):
The U.S. had 77 GW of solar capacity as of the end of 2020. To replace the usage of fossil fuels with solar energy while meeting future growth, on the order of 3 TW of solar capacity will be required by 2050, an increase of 40 times current capacity! This is the "Terawatt Challenge". Based on the analysis in the original SGP from 2008, and the in-process "SGP Stage Two", this is entirely feasible if a variety of difficult but doable challenges can be met:

• Challenge:  Energy storage
• Challenge:  Distribution, both electricity and hydrogen
• Challenge:  Infrastructure siting

The United States has an abundance of solar and wind energy potential – enough to supply its entire energy needs. This can be done using existing technology and at an affordable price. To get there requires a coordinated national-level effort. The steps are:

• Build solar PV plants in the sun-rich desert Southwest
  • U.S. located PV manufacturing plants
• Build wind farms in the wind-rich Midwest
• Build electricity storage to designed to smooth variable PV and wind electricity supply
  • Battery
  • Compressed air energy storage (CAES)
  • Molten Salt
• Construction of a HVDC transmission system to transport PV and wind electricity nationwide
• All electric transportation
  • Battery electric vehicles
  • Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles
• Conversion to electric home and commercial space heating
  • Advanced heat pump technology

Electrification of the total U.S. energy system is the only effective way to combat global warming. The largest uses for fossil fuels are electricity generation, transportation, home/commercial space heating, and industrial processes. Electricity demand will increase significantly to accommodate transportation and space heating. Public adoption of electric cars is important if we want to end transportation carbon emissions, which is important since transportation accounts for 70% of U.S. oil consumption.

An all PV and wind electricity system will allow us to expand domestic jobs and economic well-being while providing us with a sustainable and emissions free energy path for the future.

The use of carbon-free solar and wind electricity allows us to reduce CO2 emissions in 2100 by 92% below current levels. It is important for the rest of the world to follow suit if global warming is to be tamed.